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If you do one thing this year to increase your numbers, what will be the top priority?

Here is the leading answer, with an article excerpt, and a note from me at the end.

I will say this: You will need to Prioritize –

1. Knowledge

2. Influence

You need to really know the minds, and spending PATTERNS of your customers, and your in store traffic (yes, that includes physical stores and web store/sites)

Author: Bill Gerba on 2006-11-17 07:45:47

The good folks at Reveries Magazine have once again conducted a survey that highlights some of the prevailing opinions about in-store marketing. Their Shopper-Centricity Questionnaire looks at the recent phenomenon of “Shopper Marketing” and tries to determine whether it’s a powerful new strategy or (as some suggest) simply a re-badging of existing, common practices for informing customers. Given that nearly 70% of the 170 respondents listed shopper marketing as either an “important” or “extremely important” part of their 2007 marketing strategy, there’s clearly a renewed interest in how to focus marketing activities on the shopper. With this in mind, I was quite eager to look through the results and see if everybody really is on the same page.

What is shopper marketing?

Oddly enough, the Reveries survey doesn’t actually define the term “shopper marketing,” instead preferring to let the respondents decide if it’s something they engage in, and if so, how important it really is. A Google search for the term and a trip to all of the usual marketing resources on the web also don’t turn up much. But if we apply some common sense, “shopper marketing” can be in-store marketing, loyalty marketing, or even customer relationship management — basically anything that eschews broadcasting ads to the masses in favor of systems that narrowcast relevant, targeted ideas and messages to the individuals who will value them most, thereby improving the overall shopping “experience.” There’s a key distinction between “customers” and “shoppers,” and this is key to the entire idea of shopper marketing: a customer is someone who has purchased something from you before (and who may or may not do so again in the future). A shopper, on the other hand, is someone who is actually engaged in the action of shopping, whether by looking through your catalog, browsing your website, or roaming the aisles of your brick-and-mortar store. Ideally, the right messaging helps convert shoppers into (repeat) customers.

What do marketers think about it?

Many (myself, at times, included) have romanticized shopping into an exciting, social quasi-sport that’s about as far as you can get from your typical 7 pm quick top-off trip at the local supermarket — and there are arguably millions of people who enjoy shopping as a pastime. However, for every shopaholic sitting outside of a department store at 5 am on Black Friday, there are thousands of others who shop out of necessity, and that means millions upon millions of opportunities for retailers and CPGs to deliver a pleasurable experience, whether through innovative product selection and placement, an exceptional in-store environment, or a conversation with a knowledgeable store employee. And if you look at the statistic that I mentioned in the opening paragraph, retailers and product marketers clearly seem to understand just how important those opportunities are: about 70% of the 170 respondents listed shopper marketing as either an “important” or “extremely important” part of their 2007 marketing strategy. But add in those who consider it “moderately important” and we’re up at nearly 90% of respondents, which indicates a pretty significant trend to me.

Why isn’t everyone using shopper marketing?

Barriers to adopting shopper marketing as a major part of an overall program or campaign included all of the usual suspects, including lack of budget/resources, lack of management commitment and the like. However, almost equal to those was a “Lack of a commonly understood Shopper Marketing definition within your company (or client),” which was reported as a problem by 41% of respondents. That’s interesting to me for two reasons: first, it says that shopper marketing is a discipline that doesn’t have clear, uniform boundaries (or perhaps it’s an amalgam of existing marketing practices whose new moniker hasn’t yet caught on). Second, the idea that shopper marketing could be different for every company says that one marketer’s idea of what it entails could be completely different from another’s. That makes the job of putting together a shopper marketing program a tough one, but it also suggests that the demand for such services should be high. When asked which factors are most important to becoming an effective shopper-centric organization, an overwhelming 73.9% responded that having a clear idea of why “understanding one’s target consumers as ’shoppers’ — as opposed to just ‘consumers’ — is important,” and right now, it would seem that there’s a strong need to find marketing experts that can understand this critical distinction.

What are the benefits (sales, loyalty, ROI, etc)?

In terms of the perceived benefits of implementing a shopper marketing program, 42.7% of respondents believed (or hoped) that it would yield increased sales, while others predicted improved customer loyalty or overall ROI. In terms of soft benefits, respondents also expected effective shopper marketing to yield improved relationships with customers (30.2%) and a better understanding of the shopper’s needs (31.5%). That last one is a bit puzzling, since I don’t quite understand how you’d effectively market to your shoppers without knowing what their needs were in the first place, though as one of many tools in the analytics toolbox, responses to existing marketing programs can certainly be used to improve future marketing programs. On the topic of ROI, most respondents believed the ROI of a shopper marketing program to be 50-74% better (45.3%), 75-99% better (14%), 100-124% better (4%) or even more than 125% better (3.3%) than traditional trade spending, though a quick read through the write-in responses for this question shows that a lot of people think it’s too early to tell. Despite this, it’s pretty amazing that two-thirds of respondents find that shopper marketing yields a higher ROI than traditional practices, and with improved methodology (as time goes on and marketers have a chance to refine their techniques) the results should only improve.

Caveat emptor

While the findings from the Reveries survey are certainly interesting, there’s one big problem with taking them at face value: only about 5% of respondents said they worked directly in retail — the bulk were from agencies or related service industries. Now, I know there’s been a lot of buzz lately about major retailers hiring agencies to improve the store experience, but for the vast majority of retailers most in-store decisions are still made by corporate, not an outside agency. Thus, the results from the survey may have been somewhat self-selecting: those agencies and service companies that have experience with shopper marketing (or want to turn it into a revenue stream) were more likely to respond, potentially skewing the results.

Still, the news looks good for those of us who spend our time thinking about how to improve the store experience. Everything about a store — from layout to lighting to signage — can (and should be) improved to make shopping easier and more fun. These efforts tend to help shoppers find what they want and encourage them to spend more time actually enjoying themselves while shopping. Companies like Apple and Starbucks clearly get it, and even behemoths like Wal-Mart are working hard to catch up. So if you still think your retail firm can get away with offering the same bland experience to your customers, perhaps you might want to reconsider. While making your plans for 2007, leave some room for a few simple shopper marketing experiments, and consult your agency, partners and outside experts to help with your store experience planning. Shopper-centric marketing programs are on the rise, and based on the numbers above, they can not only improve your customers’ relationships with your store and your brand, but also drive increased sales and stronger ROI for your marketing dollar.

Let’s put a new lens on the future of shopper marketing.

I’ve pasted a link below and took some excerpts out of the article

http://www.hubmagazine.com/archives/the_hub/2010/jan_feb/the_hub34_mars.pdf

We propose a new diagram as a better way to depict the current landscape of shopper marketing relative to reality only a few short years ago (see chart one). We can use the right column as a checklist of things that require action in today’s version of shopper marketing; full engagement in the discipline means actually delivering something against each item. The practice of shopper marketing is evolving rapidly, with sophisticated retailers expecting manufacturers to bring solutions that drive trips, leverage the potential of the total store and grow basket size. Use this diagram to help make the transition from yesterday’s way of thinking to tomorrow’s action plan simpler and more effective.

We can use the right column as a checklist of things that require action in today’s version of shopper marketing; full engagement in the discipline means actually delivering something against each item

The new shopper-marketing landscape has changed from CPG to Retail

Yesterday

Today

Consumer

Shopper

Top Down

Bottom Up

Brand Management

Shopper Solutions

Category Share

Shopper Share

Transactional Data

Shopper Insights

How They Shop

Why They Buy

Talk To

Talk With

Media Silos

Everywhere Messages

Creative Isolation

Integrated Campaign

Isolated Innovation

Collaborative Innovation

Snapshot of a solution. To win where the shopper’s decision is really made, marketers should move beyond home-based demand/consumption thinking to full path-to purchase understanding and messaging. We’ve coined the progressive path to planning all marketing activity as “shopper-designed” planning. This planning rigor has been in place for years within many progressive agencies and manufacturing companies, and may well be the defining principle of a retailer-specific view on shopper marketing processes for the future. When the initiative works as a solution for the shopper and builds traffic/basket size for the retailer, and grows a brand without undermining the category, it makes the cut. When an approach or concept supports a strategy that both the manufacturer and multiple retailers have in common, it should ladder up to be considered by the manufacturer as an integrated national program that marketing dollars can support across a range of timeframes that make sense for multiple retailers

Get started, with a great snapshot of customers and traffic, there are innovative ways to gain insight and influence, you need to know for 2010.

Here is an idea whose time is long past due.

What do you really know about your customers and your store traffic, and if it is a web store, what do you know about the traffic there?

You probably have some metrics that tell you traffic totals, conversion rates, average sales etc…

What do you really know about their needs, thoughts, and aspirations?

How much is it costing you in lost sales, poor performance, and MISSED OPPORTUNITIES?

The example below, demonstrates the value of really knowing your traffic and your market, as well as your customers.

Retailer Caters to the Recently Divorced (only 50% or more of the adult population right?, so not very important?)

By George Anderson

Lindsay Conway, director of social services in the Presbyterian Church in Northern Ireland, finds it “very bizarre.”

Debenhams sees it as a social service and an opportunity to drive sales in its stores.

The “it” here is Debenhams’ Divorce Gift List registry service, which was launched earlier this week to help people who have ended their marriages get on with the rest of their lives.

Peter Moore, head of retail services at Debenhams, told the Belfast Telegraph, “With so many couples now living together before they marry, the Wedding Gift List concept is now regarded as more of an upgrade service, rather than stocking up the first home with the basics.

“However, a divorce means that one partner will be leaving the marital home and therefore be left without any essentials in their new house.”

Among the items the recently divorced often need include dishes, glasses, linens, towels, microwaves and toasters.

“Divorcing can be an expensive time and registering for a Divorce Gift List means that family and friends can help the newly separated begin their new life,” Mr. Moore told the Telegraph.

Richard Dodd of the British Retail Consortium, told CNN, “It’s about focusing on what your customers need and want, and of course looking for new opportunities.”

Great idea, pray tell, how will you excel this coming year?

Well here is some fresh thinking: And at the end, I will tell you a better way to get results

By Dan Alaimo

Shoppers do not necessarily fit into the demographic boxes marketers have traditionally used to develop promotional and sales programs. When consumers are divided into three groups based on shopping behavior, the usual definitions of size of household, income and age do not apply any more.

As a result, retailers and marketers have to rethink what drives the consumer to buy, said Mack Hoopes, manager of shopper insights at Henkel’s Dial Corp. More specifically, what is needed today is a better way to help retailers understand how their customers prefer to shop.

That was the central finding of new research from Henkel Consumer Goods, Scottsdale, Ariz., which markets Dial and Purex among other prominent brands.  The company is now presenting the study results to retailers, Hoopes told CPGmatters.

“We are helping our retail partners identify the proper timing of communication, and the type of communication by category to shoppers so they can increase baskets, trips, revenue and profits,” he said.

The study was published in the spring, and retailers are seeing it for the first time this fall, so “we are fairly new at this,” and there are no measurable results yet. “It is getting a very positive reception from our retailing partners, and we are understanding together how we can execute behind this.”

The company hopes the study will help retailers attract new customers, and then communicate to them with clarity and precision. The research will enable retailers to “understand which categories attract them and which categories don’t attract them so they can be more efficient operators,” he added. At Henkel, “we think we have some brands that play into that, and drive some of those attributes.”

Hoopes presented the results of the study at the LEAD Marketing Conference recently in Chicago. Using a common market research presentation technique, the study named the three groups as: ‘Shoptimizers,’ ‘Mainstreeters’ and ‘Carefrees.’

Shoptimizers is “a group that takes a lot of time pre-planning their trips, reading ads, cutting coupons, organizing lists. They spend an inordinate amount of time doing that,” Hoopes said.

Mainstreeters is a “group that says, ‘I don’t have that kind of time’ or ‘I don’t want to spend that kind of time.’ ‘I’m just going to go to the store with my simple list. I trust the store and I’m going to buy what I have to.’”

Carefrees are not responsive to marketing messages. “They are not going to spend any time (preparing to shop), and they are the kind of people who buy what they want when they want to buy it. Regardless of pricing or promotions, they are just going to go in and get what they want,” he said.

But the most surprising finding of the study was that none of these behaviors can be predicted based upon current demographic information. “Regardless of how much you make, how old you are, or how many people in your household, you could actually be anyone of the three behavioral types.”

So as a result, “we have to rethink how we go into the marketplace because each of these groups responds to the stimuli that manufacturers put in front of them very differently. It requires thinking about how we are communicating with the shopper and at what point in their shopping trip – or shopping style – we are going to talk to them,” he concluded.

Retailers and manufacturers need to evaluate implications in four areas, according to Hoopes’ presentation:

• Retailer Positioning Realize that different groups frequent different formats. There are opportunities to appeal to certain segments and define their place in the market, while taking into account key behavioral tendencies of core shoppers.

• Retailer Segmentation The study suggests more relevant and impactful ways for store clustering. Retailers can determine what type of shopper they want, and develop marketing and merchandising strategies to appeal to them.

• Promotion Targeting Shopper segments react differently to various messages and promotions, so focusing on what the desired segments respond to can lead to more effective targeting.

• Product Distribution The study could lead retailers and other marketers to rethink the 100% ACV (all commodity volume) objective. Some stores or store formats may not need to carry some products depending on the purchase behavior of their    core shoppers.

In conducting the research, Henkel, led by the Dial team which includes Hoopes, analyzed over 300 categories from 2006 through 2008. The company is continuing to track these segments to determine how or if shopping behavior patterns change during 2009 and beyond. Besides Dial and Purex, other Henkel brands include Combat, Dry Idea, got2b, Loctite, Renuzit, Right Guard, Soft & Dri, and Soft Scrub.

Summing up, Hoopes said retailers and manufacturers need to take a closer look at “what drives their shoppers to buy: where they buy and the types of media or vehicles that would stimulate them to buy.”

Integrating the latest cutting edge market research tools that measure emotional response and linkage, to a top grade tool to measure buying habits and patterns, with regular buyer and non buyer surveys, will help you understand what makes consumers tick.

Here is something to think about from Target Marketing:

The more you know about your customers, the better you can target them with relevant offers in a meaningful way. Different types of data—attitudinal, behavioral and demographic—enable different targeting abilities based on preference, purchasing and lifestyle. You can use each of these data types alone to create a marketing advantage, but they are most valuable when used in combination. Here’s how:

1. First, survey your customers to learn their attitudes about your brand and your products or services. Ask questions such as:

* What marketing channels do you use to purchase?
* What types of promotions are more enticing?
* What do you think about our brand, products, customer service?
* How do you research products before buying?

Use the answers to create selection data points in your marketing database. If surveying your customers is not an option, enhance your customer database with third-party attitudinal data. The data may be broader, but it’s still valuable to determine how to approach customers with a differentiated offer.

2. Next, create attitudinal segments (clusters) of your customers using the attitudinal data from the survey responses. (Keep the responders’ names and physical addresses—you’ll need that later!)

Once you better understand the attitudes and opinions of customer segments, you can customize products as well as target customers with better messaging and more relevant offers. Customers are far more likely to respond to an offer that resonates with their individual preferences than to a generic offer.

Attitudinal data tells you how to talk to a customer segment, not who is most likely to buy. For that, you need demographic and behavioral data.

3. By appending third-party demographic data to your customer and prospect universes, you can project the attitudinal segments by building a segmentation projection model (discriminant analysis). You also may further define subsegments by using other demographic data such as proximity to your stores, presence of children or generation (e.g., gen Xers or baby boomers).

4. Once you assign the segments on your customer database, you can build models within each segment using behavioral data such as previous purchases or campaign responses to improve targeting. These behavioral models tell you which customers within each segment are most likely to respond and/or purchase. This final, critical step allows you to limit your marketing spend to just those customers and prospects within a segment who are likely to purchase.

Attitudinal data drives the segmentation, telling you how to communicate with your customers. Behavioral data and demographics improve the targeting to just those customers who are most responsive and likely to buy.

Used in combination, attitudinal, demographic and behavioral information also provides enhanced strategic insights and help you improve product positioning and market intelligence. Varied information used together leads to better targeting to grow customers and increase your bottom line.

The Data Combo in Action
Let’s look at a hypothetical example:

Company: Furniture Store
Segment: Home Fashionistas; values high-end products
Attitudes: Prefers to research online, buy in-store due to online shopping security concerns and touch/feel product before buying; also likes new styles and premium fabrics
Behavior: High-value purchases, high frequency, all purchases made in-store
Demographics: Suburban, within 20 miles of a retail location, high household income, female, ages 45-55

You may find an attitudinal segment within your survey that describes a customer always on the lookout for the latest designs and fabrics. Projecting this segment onto your customer base reveals other like-minded customers. Look at past e-mail campaigns to this segment to discover the behavioral, geographic and demographic attributes that drive purchases at a local store through e-mail response. Next, develop an e-mail campaign that mentions new products added to the collection or fabrics that she needs to see in person to drive her into the store. You can see that isolating one data type over another leaves some part of the segment profile unanswered. Your ROI will be negatively affected if you talk to customers with these attitudes who don’t live near a store, or who aren’t likely to purchase.

There are better ways to get to know customers and have a real time understanding of what makes them buy, and what determines where they buy.

You can use the insights and relationships to effectively influence that behavior in YOUR favor.

_________________________________

Fascinating commentary from Economics News Site – Mish Shedlock

Deflation Pressures Intact

This may be one reason why government bonds refuse to sell off despite the surge in the equity market. The Wall Street Journal reports that companies like Clorox is keeping prices stable on items like its new and improved trash bags. Campbell’s Soup is cutting prices on select beverages (like V8). Burger King is selling double cheeseburgers for a buck. And, what’s this about RIM starting up a smartphone price war? According to a new holiday season poll taken by Deloitte, 74% of respondents intend to only buy items on sale or with discount coupons. The same survey indicates that holiday shopping will be flat year-over-year this year, which at one point would have been amazingly bullish but at this stage is likely a setback for the stock market. Keep in mind that Wal-Mart is now expecting 1.0%-2.0% sales growth into January 2010 whereas a year ago that expectation was in a 5.0%-7.0% range.

If there is some good news for retailers, it is that they are heading into the shopping season with fairly lean inventories — that won’t prevent but should help limit ultra-steep markdowns this year.

Martin Comments:

United States retail will very tight excepting niche markets, we are finding that understanding the patterns and behavior behind the analytic sales numbers is critical to success.

Retailers have a better grasp than ever of the retail scene through a variety of analytic tools, what they do not know, is:

WHY DO CUSTOMERS DO WHAT THEY DO AND HOW DO I MOST EFFECTIVELY INFLUENCE THAT BEHAVIOR IN MY FAVOR?

This is working very well for our retail partners,

Employ strategies and tactics that effectively alter the shopping behavior of your customers – the primary shopper, and those who shop with them and their circle of influence.

You will see what increases revenue in the store today.

Patterns caused by underlying behavior, make your sales numbers what they are, you really need help understanding the underlying thinking of your customers and market.

I think of you, when I walk through your retail stores and the malls you have built…

You and I both know, what customers say, and think, and actually do, when it comes time to spend, can be quite different, this research below may be helpful to you.

The question that I would pose:

“How do you get a granular fix on your changing customer and market, and how do you use that knowledge to take fast effective actions where it will count the most?”

I sincerely hope this is helpful to you, ps what will your customers and potential market be doing this year? My experience suggests that we can help.

Martin

(from retail wire)
Turbulent Times, Reexamined
Actual Behavior vs. Expectations

About the research:
The objective of the 2008 Unilever Trip Management Report was to uncover unique insights into the shopping tactics that would emerge under the stresses of the recessionary economy. Research, conducted in March of 2008, covered 47,000 U.S. households and 36 key categories.

Later in the year, Unilever used cluster analysis to understand the patterns of change in actual buying behavior that had occurred across 120+ Nielsen categories.
When Unilever reported the results of its Trip Management Report last April, the threat of recession had consumers worried but, for most, the reality hadn’t yet hit. Unilever felt that the rich insights derived from that study warranted a deep dive into the data later in the year to see how CPG categories were actually shopped in 2008.

Highlighted “key takeaways” from April’s original Trip Management Report prior to sharing results and recommendations from the follow-up research. Of course, even in March of ‘08, consumers expected that economic circumstances and rising prices would change the way they would live and shop. Shoppers recognized that “quick trips” were uneconomical and hoped to do more planned, stock-up shopping to save money. Also, retailers were advised, given the results, that top and bottom tier positions would do best, while consumer propositions that appealed to the mid-tier would have to struggle more in order to maintain market share. And since both high and low income shoppers were in many cases “swapping habits,” it would be essential that operators looked at the effect of changes category-by-category.

That was then, this is now…
In order to get a handle on what shoppers were actually doing in 2008, vs. what they assumed they’d do, Unilever turned to cluster analysis – simultaneously considering the shoppers’ savings tactics across 120+ Nielsen categories. What was revealed were seven distinct patterns of CPG shopping in 2008. For retailers and manufacturers, a look at these macro-trends can help determine which categories shoppers are abandoning, cutting back on, and which are continuing to prosper.

The new research revealed that there is certainly “trading down” going on, but it is the penetration declines that are most troubling to CPG categories. Retailers should

• Find SIMPLE ways to increase their value to shoppers and make sure that these are communicated clearly and often;
• Come to understand the types of sacrifices their shoppers are making and find ways to help them cope and feel better. Shoppers need to feel that you understand their pain and want to work with them in these difficult times;
• Understand how shoppers are treating important categories to help determine retail strategies;
• Leverage “Categories That Grow in Turbulent Times”;
• Drive buying rates in other categories.

Time to get a real handle on the real thoughts that link to purchase actions of your market

The radical new shopper is getting ready for a very different Christmas. First, here is an excerpt from the International Council of Shopping Centers:

This year, retailers are expected to see a 1% increase in same-store sales in November and December, according to trade group International Council of Shopping Centers. Factoring in January, sales may rise 1.5%, their best performance in three years, ICSC said.

Last year, they dropped 5.8% in November and December and declined 5.4% including January, marking their worst performance on record by both measures, ICSC said.

After trending downward for the past two years, U.S. average weekly earnings have risen, which may translate to “a positive omen” this holiday season, ICSC said.

At the same time, some signs of improvement in the job picture are emerging, with initial jobless claims declining to below 550,000 in September. In March, they reached their highest level in more than 26 years. The recession, which began in the 2007 holiday season, ended this past July, ICSC’s chief economist Michael Niemira said in an email.

“Retailers will experience their first non-recession holiday season in three years, and economic growth is fundamentally on the mend, even though there will be lingering pockets of weakness,” Niemira said. “The wear and tear of the recession and financial crisis on the consumer psyche [are] slowly giving way to renewed hope, optimism and most likely gift buying.”

In the wake of this year’s nascent economic recovery, shares of department stores and upscale retailers like Macy’s Inc. , Saks Inc. , Nordstrom Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. have outperformed the broader retail index and discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. .

As a case in point, at the recent Coterie trade show, which showcased designers’ spring collections to retail buyers, there was a steady flow of traffic, with retail buyers and designers seeing improved sentiment and orders. See full story.

The recession and record-high unemployment have led retailers across the board to lower inventory, which likely means they won’t have to offer the steep profit-eroding discounts of last holiday season in response to a sharp fall-off in demand, Niemira said.

The recession has forced some retailers out of business, but those that remain will be stronger as a whole during the upcoming holiday season, he said. Retailers from Circuit City to Linens ‘n Things have shut their stores.

While the trend of consumers buying items for themselves may be “at risk,” spending on gifts will likely improve this year, he said.

“One of the only positive factors that the retail industry can uniformly agree upon is that the year-over-year arithmetic is more favorable compared with the dismal 2008 holiday season,” Niemira said.

Ok, nice spin, but with only the government and interested “spin” partners like the mainstream media, screaming into an empty room, I have news that you know in your gut is true

– THE RECESSION IS NOT OVER-

We are noticing that shoppers are way more careful, and they are far more likely to “shop around” than ever before, before they make a deal.

If you want to survive this season, you better make sure that you understand your competition very well.

Do you really know why your shoppers, and in store browsers go to selected competition?

Do you know what they are thinking and most of all

DO YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS THAT TRIGGERS THEIR BUYING DECISION?

Does your completion know better than you?

We notice that along with buying patterns, buying “triggers” are changing fast.

Price, perception of value, store display and the quality of display “communication and connection” are now critical.

Staff interactions are changing, and selling styles that create a “buy decision” are radically different now.

Buying is triggered by the right combination of store, environment, engagement, experience and value perception….

These factors are changing at a faster rate than ever before, and you need to be able to read the signs as they change, not weeks later in your sales data.

Get ready for a very brutal and competitive season, perhaps if you are ready, and proactive:

Season’s Greetings, and if you are not…Season’s beatings indeed…

Here is a useful article and my comments after the article:

Simon Houpt

Toronto — With files from Reuters Last updated on Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2009 07:49AM EDT

For a moment, you could almost hear the sighs of relief. When a trio of big U.S.-based retailers reported second-quarter earnings on Tuesday that beat analysts’ expectations, the markets responded with a little spring in their step.

Were consumers finally stripping off their recession-era duds to come to the rescue of the world economy?

Alas, a closer look at the numbers reported by Home Depot Inc., (HD-N26.76-0.17-0.63%) Target Corp., (TGT-N45.090.771.74%) and Saks Inc. (SKS-N5.64-0.08-1.40%) suggests none of the conventional approaches for targeting consumers are having an effect. The news from all three retailing powerhouses was only good because it wasn’t as bad as everyone expected, and consumers are still window-shopping instead of heading to the cash.

Home Depot’s second-quarter profit was down 7.2 per cent to $1.12-billion (U.S.) from $1.2-billion, while the high-end retailer Saks had to choke down a loss of $54.5-million. Meanwhile, Target, which has ridden a whimsical image of smart and fashionable fun to its position as the No. 2 U.S. discount chain, reported profit of $1.064-billion in the quarter, down 3.1 per cent from a year earlier. That followed last week’s news that even Wal-Mart Stores Inc. had suffered a 1.4-per-cent drop in revenue.

The U.S. consumer who is supposed to drive the economic recovery has yet to relax behind the wheel and stop shaking with anxiety. Penny-pinching has cut across a broad swath of the retail landscape, as shoppers steer clear of luxe goods at the likes of Saks, but also cut down on the more downmarket but still chic offerings of Target, and even the household staples at Wal-Mart.

Instead, consumers are looking to the lower rung of the retail ladder: the discounters. TJX Cos. Inc., which owns T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, reported a 4-per-cent rise in sales, and attributed it to “extraordinary increases” in customer traffic.

To try to lure back the most cost-conscious shoppers from the discounters’ aisles, retailers such as Target have responded by retooling their advertising campaigns to focus more heavily on price. In television ads this season, the red-and-white bull’s-eye marketer has heavily sprinkled its message with prices for inexpensive goods like summer clothing for the whole family.

“They’re trying to reposition themselves with a bit more of a price story, where previously they really avoided that aspect,” said Scott Smith, a senior vice-president with the brand consulting company Interbrand. “Target has definitely struggled in this economy.”

Once at the mall, shoppers are reminded by in-store displays that Target regularly checks its competitors’ prices.

But even the new marketing focus on price may not be enough.

Consumers, while more confident in their own financial security than they were during the dark days of last winter, still have legitimate reasons to be nervous: Unemployment is projected to remain high for the next year, consumers perceive that their paycheques are not keeping pace with inflation, and many workers remain concerned they’ll be laid off, said Ken Goldstein, a labour economist with the New York-based Conference Board.

The recession, now more than halfway through its second year in the United States, is still holding on tight. “To be blunt about it, [consumers] are wondering how goddamned long this is going to go on,” he said.

With U.S. students returning to the classroom in less than three weeks, early back-to-school sales seem to be a widespread bust. Worse, those sales are a key signal for U.S. marketers and retailers on how to approach the holiday season. If sales remain sluggish this month, the rest of the year will be a washout, too.

Mr. Goldstein noted the increase in the savings rates for U.S. consumers was preventing a speedier recovery. “In some past recessions, consumers were not spending money consumers didn’t have. This time around is different. Consumers are not spending money consumers do have,” he said.

While the increase in the savings rate is a necessary step for the long-term health of the economy, few seem as concerned about the state of affairs 10 years down the road as they do the state of affairs next year. The U.S. consumer, then, isn’t so much a superhero as a cardiac patient that needs a jolt of life now.

“The money is there if consumers decide to spend, but there’s no evidence they’re in any mood right now, or are likely to be through the holiday season, to start to spend some of that money.”

Martin Comments:

One, the money is not there, average savings rates are climbing because consumer debt is being squeezed off, and or paid down or defaulted on.

If a customer has less credit available, does that sound like more money available to you?

So, it will be a brutal fight for market share and every dollar this year.  In addition, your budgets are decreased, and your head count is down.  You will need a very accurate method to climb inside the mind of your customers and marketplace to gain KNOWLEDGE, INSIGHT, AND INFLUENCE.  You will need to assess very accurately, what you can do with minimal resources, that will have MAXIMUM IMPACT ON SALES AND REVENUE.

Are you ready to fight intelligently?  You will have less money less time and less resources, you better be smart and have real time intelligent influence.

Your competitors will.

Here is an interview from the Globe and Mail, I will make comments after the excerpt:

It’s no secret that consumers aren’t spending as much as they used to, and they’re buying different products as well.

Overspent baby boomers in particular used to be the most brand-loyal of all shoppers. Now, they’re perusing the weekly sales flyers like any other bargain hunters and causing grief for small businesses across the country.

“Brand loyalty is waning and comparison shopping is increasing,” says Gordon Hendren, a Toronto-based consultant who spends his working hours closely analyzing consumer behaviour.

“One of the trends that we see is a kind of cocooning, simplifying life and spending less,” says Mr. Hendren, who is president of Charlton Strategic Research, which, along with the Strategic Counsel, has just completed a quarterly survey of shifting consumer attitudes in both Canada and the United States.

Will a “new” consumer emerge through this recession? That’s one of the questions Mr. Hendren and his team are studying. They are also looking at how consumer behaviour is evolving, how the environment is playing a role and how brands can engage with buyers.

Mr. Hendren has more than 20 years of experience conducting consumer studies and providing insight, with client experience ranging across such sectors as media, petroleum, financial services and retail. He is also an expert in brand tracking and brand marketing. He is a graduate of the commerce program at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont.

Mr. Hendren joined us earlier to talk about consumer behaviour and its effects on business.

First of all, as an expert in consumer behaviour, what kind of general advice are you giving to CEOs today?

Gordon Hendren: Although we see the recovery taking some time (likely a few years), good brands, smart brands, brands with a good point of difference and a value proposition should protect and even gain share.

Today is a time of risk but also a time of great opportunity for their brand and business – this is driven by brand loyalty declining and comparison shopping increasing dramatically, as consumers search for value. The paradox of the current marketplace is that many companies have dramatically cut marketing spending at exactly the time when they should be increasing marketing spending – to defend their position and take advantage of this opportunity. While there is a short term gain from cuts there may very well be a long term consequence. The weaker brands will likely suffer and decline.

Competition is increasing, so focus on your brand’s/company’s point of difference and competitive advantage. If you don’t know exactly what your point of difference is – I strongly suggest identifying it, quickly!

Dave Michaels, globeandmail.com: I’ve heard that this recession came on so quickly and frightened so many people that it has forever “changed” consumers. We’ve seen lots of stories about people cutting back who never thought they would do so, and now they are saying they’re not going to go back to their old ways. Do you think that’s true?

Gordon Hendren: There is no question that attitudes have changed significantly. That said, “forever” is likely an overstatement. Our quarterly tracking study, Consumer Shift, shows a significant pullback in consumer attitudes toward spending continuing and that a quest for value is still very much the current mindset. Also, I do believe in “wealth effect” – meaning that if your investment portfolio is down and/or the value of your house/condo is also down you are less likely to want to spend more. Negative media can also play a role – especially when coming from the U.S., where things are worse than in Canada.

We have noticed some key differences within certain demographics: Ontario has been the hardest hit in terms of attitudes toward spending; women are most likely to say that they are “comparison shoppers”; those 35 and older are most likely to be “price is the bottom line” or “comparison shoppers” segments; those with household income under $50k are most likely to be in the “price is the bottom line” category.

The segment that is likely to have a longer spending pullback (and increased savings) is the pre-retirement (50-plus) group. A significant proportion of this age group is worried that, as of today, they do not have enough saved for retirement. While this may be good for the financial services sector (increased savings and investment) it is not good news for other consumer categories. While they will be very selective concerning value, this 50-plus segment offers an emerging opportunity to win new consumer loyalty driven by relevant value propositions.

It is essential to understand the mindset and needs of the new consumer. Yes, different products may be offered OR the consumer might buy existing products for different reasons today. As well it is also important to understand that the marketplace is segmenting, meaning that there are different segments that are very price-sensitive, some are value shoppers, some are brand-loyal.

Using the automotive category as an example: Hyundai recognized a fear among buyers of being locked into a new vehicle purchase (fear of losing their jobs), so they created the assurance program where if you lose your job within a year they will refund your money – obviously an added feature to a current offer that was very relevant.

The continued emergence of the online world is another trend we see, because it is cheap to use and is perceived to offer lots of stuff that is free, thus appealing to value-conscious consumers. Notice that Microsoft is getting into the search business to compete with Google.

In the sports world we see indications of growth potential in fantasy pools, betting on sports and playing sport video games. These appeal to the consumer’s need and desire for escape (as do movies, which are up significantly).

The bottom line to thinking about any new products – start with consumer’s needs and their mindset.

Certainly the financial/investment sector has lost a great deal of respect in the past year. Re-earning their clients’ trust needs to be a big focus for them.

While consumer demand in the automotive sector is down significantly several brands have stood out with a solid value proposition: Ford and Hyundai. Ford for its straight talk and employee pricing. Hyundai being the first to offer its assurance program. This shows that some brands with a solid product offering and relevant communication can rise up, even in categories that are experiencing a tough time.

Offering good value is fundamental and is more important than ever. Think beyond price. Our study shows that while consumers are spending less in general they are also looking for better value. Rewarding customers with value added, product bundling and loyalty programs is very helpful in such a competitive environment.

From a communication point of view, there is a need to be in tune with how consumers are feeling and thinking. A humorous approach can be very effective but is hard to do well; straight/honest talk is seen as a good approach by consumers.

Social media have created new channels for information (such as Facebook, Twitter). Also, social media have changed the speed/rate that information can travel. A bad consumer experience can get circulated very quickly to hundreds, maybe even thousands of people. This can be further amplified by the fact that the source is “trusted” (for instance, a friend within the social media network). Marketers are trying to figure out how to harness social media – and it is not easily done!

Martin’s comments:

Now is the time to climb inside the “Mind of your Customer and your Market”

Retailers know the numbers, analytics can help you determine what your customers are doing, the blind spot is your customers who are not in your loyalty program (typically at least 70%) and your in store browsers and competitors customers.  How will you get good, real time information on their actions?

Now get better analytics to really segment your customers.

Once you have better numbers, you need to know two CRITICAL FACTORS

WHY DO THEY DO WHAT THEY DO?

WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT IT THAT WILL BE MOST EFFEFCTIVE/

You will need a way to get inside the mind of your customers and your marketplace.  Your solution needs to be like a real time nervous system, telling you what is happening day to day in your stores, and in your market.

That is where we are finding the greatest return on effort.

_________________________________

Martin Hoffmitz
VP, Client Partnering
BehaviorWorx Inc.
#202 – 222 Islington Avenue
Toronto, ON  M8V 3W7

Email: martin.hoffmitz@bwxi.com

Office: 416.251.0111 x250

Cell: 647.287.4491
Fax: 416.251.9489
Web: www.bwxi.com
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Martin Hoffmitz to me, Howard

show details Aug 19

Here is an article from the Washington Post, that smart retail CEO’s need to consider very carefully.

Prices Fall To Match A New Frugality
Retailers Respond To Shopping Habits Forged in Recession

By Ylan Q. Mui
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 12, 2009

The nation’s retailers have begun to embrace the new cost-conscious consumer, developing products they can sell at lower prices without driving themselves out of business in the post-splurge era.

Starbucks dropped the price of a medium iced coffee last week to just under $2. American Eagle cut out the ribbon from the inside waistband of its khakis and lowered the cost. Pottery Barn launched a new “Comfort Collection” sofa that starts at $999.99, which is $300 less than the “Basic Collection” sofa. Even Rock & Republic, whose trendy denim has graced the backsides of celebrities such as Victoria Beckham, recently unveiled a line of recessionista jeans selling for $128, a 29 percent reduction.

Retailers have absorbed the lessons of a ruinous holiday season. Caught with shelves full of unsold merchandise, they slashed prices to draw in shoppers. But the strategy was unsustainable: It decimated profits and resulted in massive layoffs, killing off a number of chains, including Circuit City. Serving recession-era shoppers, retailers realized, would require a long-term strategy featuring lower prices.

“What we have is retailers reacting to a very low-appetite consumer and a consumer that has been now taught to wait,”

The new consumer has curtailed spending and increased savings to 10-year highs. Smaller houses are newly coveted, bringing the average size of a new home down in 2008 for the first time in 35 years, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Fancy dinners out have been scaled back, prompting restaurants to reconfigure their menus. (Clyde’s created a cheaper entree by offering one crabcake instead of two last month.) A recent survey by Boston Consulting Group found that 48 percent of consumers said they traded down on products last year, an increase from 41 percent in 2007. The number of shoppers trading up fell by six percentage points.

Retailers reassess their prices and their assortment of products every season. But this year, they are being particularly conservative. They are less willing to take risks on trendy, unproven merchandise and are stocking tried-and-true customer favorites. They have been reducing inventories; import cargo fell to the lowest level in seven years in February, according to an industry trade group. Many are putting more emphasis on lowering prices on the cheapest version of their products.

Consumer prices fell on a year-over-year basis in March for the first time in more than half a century, driven primarily by plummeting energy and transportation prices. Apparel and food prices increased during that period but fell on a monthly basis. Some economists have worried that falling prices could result in deflation, but Hemant Sangwan, a consultant with IHS Global Insight, said he doesn’t think that is a danger in the retail sector. He considered the price cuts more of a marketing strategy to win over reluctant shoppers.

“Prices, especially in the retail sector, are very easy to change,” Sangwan said. “As soon as the nature of consumers will change, prices will respond in the same way.”

Some price reductions have come from stripping out fancy details for which retailers once charged a premium. Production costs have also dropped, allowing sellers to pass on the savings. Retailers are streamlining supply chains and creating new merchandise with cheaper components and lower prices. In some cases, they are sacrificing profits and hoping to make up the difference in volume.

Gretchen Hitchner sent back the $400 cocktail dresses she ordered from a vendor in favor of stocking up on a more versatile minidress that sells for $98 at her Bethesda boutique, Ginger. She cut her purchases for the fall by roughly 20 percent and is trying to offer more clothing for less than $200.

“You take a chance every season with every style,” she said. “It’s a whole different story this year.”

Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz said the company is tweaking pricing on its coffees after closing hundreds of stores over the past year. “Grande” iced coffee began selling for $1.95 last week, down from $2.25 in the Washington area. The company is also lowering prices on popular beverages such as tall lattes in some markets, though it is also raising the price of larger, more complex drinks.

“Consumers want to feel good about every hard-earned dollar they spend, and we certainly understand that,” Schultz told analysts.

Profit at the accessories manufacturer Coach fell 29 percent to $115 million, during the most recent quarter, compared with the previous year. The company responded by repricing its merchandise 10 to 15 percent lower and offering more styles for less than $300. Next fiscal year, it plans for nearly half of the merchandise in its stores to cost $200 to $300, compared with 30 percent selling in that range this year.

J. Crew, meantime, now sells a new, more basic version of its popular ballet flat for $98. The cheapest ballet flat previously cost $118. This fall, the retailer plans to lower the price of its entry-level jeans by about $20 from $92.50.

“We do know for sure that there is an enormous price sensitivity out there,” chief executive Millard S. Drexler said in a recent conference call with analysts. “We’re just being real conservative now.”